28/08/2018
Stanlib's Weekly Focus with Paul Hansen and Kevin Lings
Market Comment
• For the first time in 7 months since late January, the S&P 500 Index closed at a new record high, to be +7.7% so far in 2018, right in the midst of the quietest time of the year because of the summer holidays. This is the last week of holidays.
• The Nasdaq also closed at a new high (+15.1% year-to-date), as did the smaller share Russell 2000 Index (+12.4%). The Dow is still 810 points below its previous high (-3.1%).
• What is also intriguing is that the US bond market is also stronger, with the 10-year yield down (price up) at 2.81%, the lowest yield (highest price) in 3 months.
• Despite recent higher inflation numbers in the US, Fed Governor Powell indicated on Friday in his speech that it looks unlikely that inflation will move materially above the 2% target, meaning he doesn’t appear concerned about inflation, which is very unusual after 9 years of an economic recovery.
• This has allowed the bull market in shares to be one of the longest in history, with strong economic growth and rising earnings accompanied by fairly loose monetary policy (still low interest rates).
• What was very important last week was that the US dollar weakened a bit more to $1.161 to the euro (ironically partly because of Trump’s political problems), thereby improving risk-taking and helping commodity markets and emerging markets.
• All of this good news appears to have finally spilled over into the JSE, with the All Share Index rising by +3.8% last week to a 6-month high, at the same time as the rand gained +2.4% (so in dollars the ALSI gained over +6% last week).
• The ALSI is today up for the 8th consecutive day! Wow!
• The South African Reserve Bank’s business cycle indicator accelerated to +5.9% year-on-year in June. Apparently this is a reliable predictor of economic growth 6-9 months out.
• So the ALSI is now slightly positive in 2018 (including dividends) at +0.1% (was -3.6% a week ago), while SA Listed Property recovered a little more to be -19.5% so far in 2018 (was -20.2% last week) and the All Bond Index is at +4.9% (+3.7% last week) as better emerging market sentiment and currencies brought the 10-year yield down a bit (price up).