Entire Risk and Research

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We help companies ( big or small) in turning threats into profitable and growth opportunities through the provision of accessible, affordable and modern day risk management techniques.

02/05/2026

Get out of paper

The saying goes when gold and inflation are rising while the government is saying things are under control then know that someone is lying.

The economic recession and depression are two troubling brothers to the working class which are often misunderstood. The former is, at a minimum, a contraction of the GDP for two consecutive quarters while the later is the contraction that can take years or even decades to reset.

During a recession, the working class wait it over by practices like cutting budget and even borrowing.However, when depression hits,the working class got wiped out.The center won't be holding.The falcon won't see the falcon. Markets overheat, credit disappear like dew in the morning.Banks stop lending to each other and liquidity squeezes. Inflation spike and gold firms.

When things go southwards like this,the wealthy migrate their portfolios to harder assets like gold and exit the paper. Harder assets work for you not the other way round of paper when push comes to shove.

During crisis the middle class need to learn to see,grab and utilies opportunities to move a bracket up.They need to get out of paper and go into harder assets for harder assets never disappoint all the way.

Entire Risk & Research.

18/04/2026

POLICY RISK
Personally, i think that there is no such thing as policy risk but policy makers risk. What we term today as policy risk is an out not the driver.The driver is the maker(s).

Any policy inconsistancy must be owned the the makers and must be measured to that.There is no such thing as policy failure or inconstancy but policy maker(s) failure. I think it's high time we stop blaming those documents and instruments, they know nothing at all and shift all the responsibility to those who sit around the tables proclaiming that which doesn't work just because they are in a position of authority.

Policy failure or inconstances must be taken to courts and have a living liability to the makers.That way we can try and minimize the losses that come with these frivolous statements framed as policies that only come to bring harm and mayhem to otherwise healthy run organisations.

So organisations out there,when analysing policy "risk" as it is usually termed, scrutinise the makers more.That way, the actual risk will be exposed as well as it's actual treatment.

To my learned colleagues around the world, I think it's high time we craft something like the policy failure or inconstancy laws the same way laws are existing in the medical profession wherein doctors are held liable for wrong medication, procedures and the like, for an organisation is a living and independent entity that should enjoy the right of life.

Happy independence Zimbabwe.

FRM guru.

01/04/2026

The fiat USD and the saver.

When the Israel Iran war started, a barrel of oil was costing $65.00.

Fast forward to today, it's sitting around $115/ barrel.

What's the meaning of this?

The fiat greenback has lost 77% of its value since the beginning of the war.

This means that savings in bank account, in vaults, under the mattresses have also lost the same ground against oil in terms of time value for money..Knowing the cascading effects of oil, a significant ground across all sectors.

With savings seems there is no way out.

Are savings really a game to bet on in times like these? The answer is absolutely no. Any dollar saved today will be worth less tomorrow.
This phenomenon is called inflation.

Who then is there to bail out the general populace?

This ordinarily is a crisis. If economic systems were working properly, savers were supposed to be bailed out the same way corporates and financial institutions are bailed out.

Unfortunately for poor savers, governments don't care about ordinary consumers. No bail out is coming to rescue the ordinary saver.

They are quick to bail their cartels using public funds not the other way around.

Even in advanced markets, the hymn is the same.When inflation's picks up authorities respond by increasing interest rates making borrowing very expensive.

This subsequently make products like mortgages very expensive leading to defaults and repossessions become the order of the day plunging the hardworking public in poverty

26/03/2026

The dollar vs the gold

The two are in the ring,have been in the ring and are going to be in ring for the foreseeable future. But who is who in the ring.

A general three- decade trend analysis may give us clues.Between 1995 and 2004, gold was trading at around $330/oz.From 2005 to 2014 gold broke the $1000/oz mark largely due to the mortgage crisis, with 2011 being the pick at $1900/oz before receding to $1050/oz.

However the year 2023 saw gold breaking ranks with the greenback as it capped the year trading above $2000. By March 2025, gold was seen crossing $2900 and eventually capped 2025 at $3800.At the start of the American and Israel war against the Islamic Republic of Iran gold crossed the $5000 mark before levelling off at around $4500(currently).

The above analysis shows that the greenback got a battering of roughly 93% against the yellow metal. In other words, a person who was holding $330 in 1995 is now in deep debt while the one who was holding gold is deep in the money ie smiling all the way to the vault.

What then the outlook is holding for us?

The projections are pointing to a spike in gold prices come the close of 2026.Below are some of the few selected:
°BoA. $5000
°Goldman and Sachs $5400
°Deutsche Bank $6200
•UBS. $6200

With JP Morgan' bull scenario pointing to somewhere between $8000 and $8500 under the assumption that households increase their yellow metal's holding from the current 1% to 4.6%.

What this points out to is that the yellow metal is our sanctuary whether in crisis or not.

Look forward for part two where the drivers of the above scenario will be unpack.

Stay tuned

Entire Risk and Research.

03/01/2026

The bombing Caracas and the subsequent capturing of President Maduro and wife may economically mean disaster to the energy markets which may cascade to the ordinary consumers.We may need to brace for what's coming ahead.Politically it may sound something but economically pockets will be rinsed dry.

Entire risk and research.

17/06/2025

Consumerism and the Capital economy ( drivers of climate change)

The last few decades have seen an almost exponential increase in consumption as an indicator of being wealth. This is leading to wasteful living styles largely financed by ballooning household debts.

The world has seen radical changes in the way people eat, drink, work, travel,wash,play and rest all under the mythical assumption that the resources eg water and energy these activities depend on are limitless,cheap and their usage is free from any serious retribution from mother nature.

This has seen an ever increasing ecological impact of all those who have bought and haven't bought into consumer capitalism- climate change, with the later being disproportionately affected.

A check is needed now more that ever before the human race is relagated to extinction.

16/06/2025

The capitalism principle amid climate change and sustainability development

Capitalism thrives on constant accumulation.It gives capital no rest and continuously whispers in it's ears to go on and on.

Although this system has seen considerable social progress, the principle on its own carries a heavy burden on both social and environmental costs like periodic devastating economic crises, a continually bloated reserve army of unemployed and underemployed, externalisation of huge costs on both the society and the environment as well as the polarisation of income and wealth.

01/11/2024

Something is compelling me do try and do the maths between the Zig the reserves and the devaluation.

On April 5 2024, the reserves were amounting to $80m so the zig equivalent in circulation was 80m x 13.5= 1,08billion.

Fast forward to September 2025.The rate was around 14 and reserves were now amounting to $450m.Meaning the Zig should have appreciated by more that 500% but alas it went down by 75%.Why. Nobody heard of the injection of the Zig by the authorities till the devaluation day. We only heard that reserves had increased so the amount of Zig had to increase as well.But to begin with that's not the purpose of the reserves.

Reserves are there to stabilize the currency.

Secondly it seems the authorities that be were injecting liquidity with no any correction with the reserves.For them arriving at 1 zig=25 they simply said 10billion / 450m.Now two theories. The tap was never closed.It kept oozing at least @ 2bn per month without considering the reserves.The other theory is that these so called reserves are not even there.The figure is just arbitrary to justify the excess liquidity that is being pumped into the economy day in and out.

Why? The simple answer is there was no need to raise the statutory reserves by 100% if the liquidity wasn't in excess and if reserves were in place to cover the currency.These two policy have an indirect relationship holding other things constant. One can't raise reserves by more than five fold and the raise statutory reserves at the same time by 100% and interest rates by similar margins.

Something is not adding up here.It seems no matter how hard we try as an economy to stabilize both the micro and macro, the elephant in the room still remains- monetisation.

13/09/2024

The ZWG is under pressure.

Currency risk remain very high with more market players shunning the ZWG currency.The few that are bound by law,are reviewing the ZWG prices longest on a weekly basis.A cross market survey points to a black market rate of around $1/ZWG 25 on average.

Considering that we are now approaching the festive season this points to a more difficult one in terms of purchasing power of the general consumer.

Entire Risk and Research

17/01/2024

*The big dysfunction of the boards*

"Let's bring outsiders,people with different backgrounds and representing different social , political and economic interests".

At face value the above looks great, except now the board have a roomful of people who don't understand the business.

Mainly the language these people have is financial accounting,so that's what they concentrate on.In this state, as long as things are going fine that will be great but real testing of the iron comes when ocean storms start troubling the ship.This is when problem-solving is found to be absent home and away right at the board level. All the board can do at this point is to replace the CEO.

The role of the board vis-a-vis strategy is one where many industries are yet to sort out.

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